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         首页 >> 社会学
        杨巧 王悦 李仙:流动人口流入地定居意愿与再迁移决策
        2019年09月25日 11:07 来源:中国社会科学网-中国社会科学报 作者:杨巧 王悦 李仙 字号

        内容摘要:

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        作者简介:

          国家统计局发布的《2018年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》显示,截至2018年底我国常住人口城镇化率为59.58%,流动人口总量已达2.41亿?!耙匀宋诵摹钡某钦蚧堑车氖舜笕妨⒌某钦蚧铰孕吕砟?,促进流动人口从经济、社会关系、文化和政治领域多方面融入城市,享受城市发展带来的系列红利是进一步提高我国人口城镇化质量的关键。本文采用中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)2014年和2016年追踪数据,分析了流动人口不同阶段流动状况变化及其对流动人口迁移决策的影响。

          流动人口流入地定居意愿存在户籍和城市差异。根据杨菊华等的定义,将调查时为农村户籍的流动人口定义为乡—城流动人口,将调查时为非农户籍的流动人口定义为城—城流动人口,样本中乡—城流动人口2014年共有997人,占总流动人口样本的68.48%,2016年共983人,占比73.74%。分析不同户籍类型流动人口流入地定居意愿的差异,第一,乡—城流动人口流入地定居意愿强于城—城流动人口,2014年选择“非??赡芮ㄒ啤钡南纭橇鞫丝诖?7.81%,选择“非??赡芮ㄒ啤钡某恰橇鞫丝诓蛔懔匠?,2016年选择“非??赡芮ㄒ啤钡南纭橇鞫丝谡急雀浅恰橇鞫丝诘?.58倍。第二,与城—城流动人口相比,乡—城流动人口对是否在流入地长期居留的不确定更强,2014年和2016年不确定是否在流入地居留的乡—城流动人口占比分别为21.66%和21.48%,高于城—城流动人口15.25%和15.42%的比例。本文根据国务院印发的《关于调整城市规?;直曜嫉耐ㄖ?,对流动人口流入城市进行规模分类。研究发现,第一,城市规模越大,流动人口流入地定居意愿越强,2014年和2016年超大特大城市有流入地定居意愿的样本比例分别为39.69%和28.9%,大城市占比分别为28.67%和27.11%,中小城市占比为20.70%和17.80%。第二,乡—城流动人口在不同类型城市的长期定居意愿均远高于城—城流动人口,2014年乡—城流动人口在超大特大城市、大城市和中小城市有明确定居意愿的分别为51.97%、35.77%和27%,而城—城流动人口分别为15.5%、10.26%和9.63%。

          向上流动的流动人口拥有较强的流入地定居意愿。根据流动人口户口所在地城市等级和流入地城市等级,将流动的梯级变化分别定义为:向下流动、平级流动和向上流动。第一,流动人口城市梯级层面的流动以向上流动为主,其次是平级流动,向下流动的比例最少,2014年和2016年向上流动的样本分别占比60%和61%,平级流动的样本分别占31.3%和28.4%,向下流动的样本分别占8.7%和10.6%。第二,向上流动的人口有流入地定居意愿的比例最高,2014年和2016年占比均在30%以上;平级流动的人口不愿在流入地定居的意愿占比最高,2014年和2016年均在50%以上。第三,从时间上看,无论哪一类梯级流动的人口,2016年有明确流入地定居意愿的人群占比均低于2014年,2014年和2016年向上流动的人口中“非??赡堋痹诒镜囟ň拥恼急确直鹞?7.95%和31.49%,平级流动人口的占比为13.39%和12.40%,而向下流动的占比为22.31%和20.57%。

          关注流动人口再迁移原因,第一,生活成本与房价是最重要的两个影响因素,房价高的城市房租相对也高,流动人口整体住房获取成本较高;此外,房价高的城市,房屋的使用成本会隐形摊入商品价格和人力成本,使得整体生活成本提高。第二,流动人口再迁移决策的考察中,成本对决策的影响比收益对决策的影响更明显。人口迁移的成本收益考察中,工作机会和工资收入属于收益层面的考察,而这两个因素对流动人口迁移决策的影响度均小于生活成本和房价的影响。第三,相较于2014年,2016年房价对流动人口迁移决策的影响增加,房价上涨背景下流动人口迁移决策会越来越多地考虑这一因素。

          房价和生活成本是影响流动人口再迁移的重要原因。进一步根据流动人口现居住地的城市规模分析其再迁移原因:不同规模城市流动人口再迁移的主要影响因素存在较大差异,超大特大城市流动人口再迁移的主要原因是高房价和高生活成本,大城市流动人口再迁移的主要原因是家人需要照顾,其次是生活成本高和房价太高,且两者占比相差不大,中小城市选择其他的占比最高,其次为家人需要照顾。

          流动人口的未来定居地选择以返回户籍所在地为主。对于不准备在流入城市长期居留的流动人口,面临着再迁移过程中的城市选择。流动人口中选择回老家农村定居的占比最高,2014年和2016年分别为43.94%和44.22%;其次是回家乡地级市,2014年和2016年占比均为17.56%;2014年和2016年愿意回老家镇上定居的人群占比分别为12.61%和15.74%??梢钥吹?,对于未准备在流入地定居的流动人口而言,返回户籍所在地城市定居的意愿非常强烈。

          通过对当前流动人口流入地定居意愿与再迁移成因的分析,提高我国城镇化质量,需要针对不同规模城市采取差异化的落户政策。城市经济发展水平存在差异,公共服务供给水平、就业机会、收入水平和生活成本均存在差异,要结合流动人口,特别是乡—城流动人口的迁移意愿,对人口流动进行适当引导,促进区域间的经济、人口均衡发展。此外,当前要坚持住房价格调控,在“房住不炒”思想的指导下,建立并完善住房价格长效调控机制。大力发展住房租赁市场,使得流动人口可以多渠道有保障地解决住房问题,提高流动人口城市居住质量,进一步促进流动人口的城市融入,增强其城市迁移意愿。

         ?。ū疚南倒疑缈苹鹣钅俊叭丝诮峁贡涠灾泄》啃枨蟮挠跋觳舛燃坝Χ哉哐芯俊保?4CRK015)、中央高?;究蒲邢钅俊俺鞘谢?、区域房价差异与人口迁移决策”(1910503)阶段性成果)

         ?。ㄗ髡叩ノ唬褐心喜凭ù笱Ы鹑谘г海?/p>

        作者简介

        姓名:杨巧 王悦 李仙 工作单位:中南财经政法大学金融学院

        课题:

        国家社科基金项目“人口结构变动对中国住房需求的影响测度及应对政策研究”(14CRK015)、中央高?;究蒲邢钅俊俺鞘谢?、区域房价差异与人口迁移决策”(1910503)阶段性成果

        转载请注明来源:中国社会科学网 (责编:孙志香)
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